Wednesday, October 27, 2010

LUCKY vs. GOOD: The Fantasy Football Analogy

Is it better to be lucky or to be good?

I am the first-place team in my fantasy football auction league (7-0-0). This week, I'm playing the second-place team (5-2-0).

Look deeper, though, and you'll find two very different teams.

I've won twice by less than one point and a third time when I had the third-worst score of the week (55.66) and played against the team with the worst (50.88).


The guy I'm playing this week has the most total points in the league. I have the second most. But the difference between him at #1 and me at #2 (~80 pts) is almost as big as between me at #2 and the guy at #10 (~90 pts).


Of course, someone from the practical world may say this match-up really comes down to how badly Ryan Torain and Arian Foster will shred the soft Detroit and Indianapolis run defenses, whether Kenny Britt can get it done against a much tougher San Diego pass defense, and if Ryan Fitzpatrick can keep his streak of 20+ point weeks going with defenses now keyed onto him.

Or it could already be over, because he's playing at full strength, and I've got Roddy White and Ray Rice sitting on Byes.

(Probably not. But I'm a whiner, so I have to bring it up.)


Maybe it's because I had to read Heloise & Abelard last week and then spent half an hour on Wikipedia looking up realism and universals, but, to me, this is the age-old battle between Luck and Talent.

Namely, is it better to be lucky or to be good?

I'll let you know next Tuesday.

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